Apple’s Foldable iPhone Roadmap Extends to Third Generation; Global Market Share May Surpass Huawei This Year
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On August 10, according to Feixiang Network, citing Mark Gurman’s latest Power On newsletter, Apple has finalized a complete three-year iteration roadmap for its foldable iPhone, with the third-generation model expected to launch as early as 2028. Gurman previously noted that Apple’s first foldable iPhone is scheduled for an official debut in Fall 2026, tentatively named the iPhone Ultra, and will adopt a book-style inward folding mechanism.
On the hardware front, the initial foldable iPhone will feature a 7.8-inch inner display and a 5.5-inch outer display. The device will reportedly abandon Face ID in favor of a side-mounted Touch ID sensor, integrate the A20 chip alongside Apple’s self-developed C2 baseband, and emphasize an ultra-thin chassis design. In terms of pricing, the starting price is expected to reach approximately USD 2,000 (roughly RMB 13,530), with certain configurations potentially commanding higher price points.
If the first-generation model primarily serves as a technological breakthrough and market trial, the pressure for substantial user experience iteration will fall on the subsequent two generations. According to market information, the second-generation foldable iPhone is slated for a 2027 release and has already secured internal project approval at Apple. Rather than drastically altering the base screen dimensions, the second generation will prioritize hinge structure optimization, overall weight control, and battery life extension. It will also aim to further minimize the visual impact of screen creases, refine the iOS foldable interaction ecosystem, and address the hardware and software shortcomings exposed by the initial model.
By the time the third-generation product arrives in 2028, it may undergo significant upgrades at the screen level. Gurman mentioned that both the inner and outer screen sizes of the third-generation foldable iPhone will see slight increases compared to the first two generations, though he did not disclose exact display specifications.
According to the latest global foldable smartphone market forecast released by Counterpoint Research, global foldable smartphone shipments in 2026 are projected to grow by 21% year-on-year. Driven by sustained consumer demand for premium large-fold devices, intensifying product competition among leading smartphone manufacturers, and Apple’s anticipated official entry into the foldable market, the foldable segment is expected to continue expanding from its 2025 baseline.
The research firm projects that Samsung will maintain its global leadership in the foldable smartphone market in 2026, with an estimated market share of 32%. However, with Apple’s official market entry and Huawei’s continued strong momentum (particularly in the Chinese market), the 2026 competitive landscape will differ significantly from 2025. The firm estimates Apple will capture 25% of the market share in 2026, while Huawei is projected to hold 24%, followed by Motorola and Honor at 8% and 3%, respectively.
Against this backdrop, the foldable smartphone panel market in 2026 is expected to rebound from the 2025 adjustment period, with shipments projected to grow by approximately 24% year-on-year and revenue increasing by roughly 48%. This growth will be driven not only by volume recovery but also by Apple’s market entry and an upgraded portfolio of premium large-fold devices.
The firm’s report indicates that full-year foldable smartphone panel shipments in 2026 are expected to reach approximately 27.5 million units, representing a 24% increase from 2025. Revenue is projected to hit around USD 4.4 billion, marking a 48% year-on-year growth. Following a mild adjustment in 2025, foldable smartphone panel shipments will re-enter an expansion cycle in 2026.
Prior to the official launch of Apple’s first foldable device, Samsung’s upcoming Galaxy Unpacked event will serve as a critical milestone for the foldable market. Samsung is expected to unveil the Galaxy Z8 series, encompassing the Galaxy Z8 Flip, Galaxy Z8 Fold, and a model featuring a wider folding screen. The wider large-fold design is anticipated to become a market focal point, promising a more practical outer screen experience and expanded inner display space to accommodate multitasking, content browsing, and AI-assisted productivity applications.
As AI capabilities gradually expand from conversational interfaces to daily workflows, wider large-fold designs will become increasingly valuable. Tasks such as document summarization, content editing, schedule management, and cross-application information routing will all benefit from larger screen real estate and more flexible interface layouts.
Liz Lee, Deputy Director at Counterpoint Research, stated: "2026 marks a new phase for the foldable smartphone market. Apple’s entry is expected to further elevate consumer awareness of foldable products and raise the benchmark for premium foldable devices. However, Samsung continues to hold distinct advantages in product maturity, channel deployment, and overall foldable user experience."
Furthermore, after several generations of iteration, Android manufacturers have accumulated extensive experience in smartphone hinges, crease control, battery optimization, and software split-screen adaptation. Apple will need to match the comprehensive experience of these mature competitors right from its first-generation product.
Supply chain manufacturing yield rates also remain a key uncertainty hovering over the foldable iPhone. The processing difficulty for foldable screen hinges and ultra-thin UTG (Ultra-Thin Glass) is significantly higher than that of conventional slab phones. If yield rates fall short of expectations, it will not only disrupt supply schedules but also further drive up hardware costs. From an industry manufacturing perspective, achieving high precision and consistency in complex hinge assemblies often relies on advanced powder metallurgy and metal injection molding (MIM) processes, where yield optimization directly impacts commercial viability.
Although the hardware roadmap is already mapped out through 2028, the iOS software ecosystem tailored to the foldable form factor will require continuous refinement alongside device iterations. Multitasking split-screen functionality and large-screen application adaptation will demand long-term updates and optimization.
Beyond R&D and supply chain yield challenges, rising costs for external components will similarly exert pricing pressure on the foldable iPhone. Apple CEO Tim Cook stated that as memory chip prices continue to climb, the company is evaluating all available mitigation strategies. He described the current memory pricing environment as a "once-in-a-century flood," noting that prices have experienced exponential increases.
Tarun Pathak, Research Director at Counterpoint Research, remarked: "With storage prices expected to continue rising in the coming period, the smartphone industry will face a more challenging market environment in the second half of the year."
Sources
- Feixiang Network (August 11, 2026) - Original Link: Apple’s Foldable iPhone Roadmap Extends to Third Generation; Global Market Share May Surpass Huawei This Year